This is an excerpt of an email received from a traffic planner in Orange county. When we get permission, we will post his name.
“Received the information regarding the proposed changes to the Alafaya Reserve (Morgran PD). As a practicing transportation planner and partner in a local consulting firm, I am often involved in the analysis of proposed developments on behalf of local government and private developers.
The information provided in the letter we received regarding the trip production from the approved and the requested development program is a bit misleading. Although the base trip generation from the existing and requested programs is stated relatively close to what the ITE Trip Generation guidelines would produce (17,771 and 33,955 trips, respectively), the actual calculation of net new trips that would be added to the roadway network outside the project (net external/new trips) must consider the phenomenon of internal and pass-by capture. When those factors are applied, the actual estimated net new trips for the existing project is 13,951 daily, or about 1,576 trips during the PM peak hour. The net new trips from the requested change would be about 18,286, or around 2,127 new trips in the PM peak hour.
This is significantly different from what was presented in the letter we received from the POA. The difference in daily trips is meaningful but most important is that the additional trips that may be assigned to Alafaya Trail during the PM peak period, when the project is completed (assuming no other access to the site is constructed and connects to a roadway that would distribute traffic other than on to Alafaya, is sufficient to require at least one new lane in each direction, maybe more if the planned widening does not leave some “reserve” capacity for this project when the widening is completed under the Avalon Park development order condition.
Just wanted the POA to be well informed. Contact me if you wish.”